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market leasing assumptions – argus valuation dcf

This post is a part of a collection of posts about Argus Valuation DCF and the Argus Certification Exam. You can view all posts in the series by following the Argus Certification Exam tag.

Creating a market leasing assumption in Argus Valuation DCF allows you to quickly assign assumptions for a tenant at the end of their current term.  In the Tenant Rent Roll there is a column for Market Leasing.  Right click this cell to create a new Market Leasing Assumption or edit an existing (alternatively, go to Market->Market Leasing Assumptions).

The above image shows two columns, Renewal Market and New Market.  Pretty self-explanatory columns.  The row headers on the left list the different sections that can be customized based on the type of assumption being made.  The first cell that impacts the calculations of the entire assumption is the Renewal Probability cell.  Understanding its impact on the weighted items in the above screen shot can be found in the Market Leasing Assumptions example below.

After entering the renewal probability, step through the different rows specifying the details for each.

  • Market Rent – how much in rent if a new tenant signed up vs. renewing with the existing tenant.  In the above screen shot it’s $20 SqFt/Yr vs. $18 SqFt/Yr respectively.
  • Months Vacant – if renewing the existing tenant, zero months are vacant.  If signing on a new tenant, there will likely be downtime between the existing tenant moving out and the new tenant moving in.  In the above example it’s 3 months.
  • Tenant Improvements – what will the landlords contribution be towards Tenant Improvement dollars?  The dollars committed by the landlord in a renewal are less than with a new tenant.
  • Leasing Commissions – what are the leasing commissions in a new market vs. a renewal market
  • Rent Abatements – Will tenants receive any free months rent?
  • Is a security deposit required?

Following the setup of the weighted categories, are the non-weighted categories:

  • Rent Changes – is there step rent, CPI, Porters wages or other things that might increase the rent annually?
  • Retail Sales – is there a percentage rent clause for retail tenants?
  • Reimbursements – how are reimbursements setup?
  • Term Lengths – what is the term for the renewal or new tenant?

Once the leasing assumption is set up, future projections use the figures provided for the new and renewal market and the renewal probability to determine cash flow for the tenants space.  The above image is the office leasing assumption for a basic property.  Smoot Jones, an accounting firm, lease expires at the end of the year.  What will Argus use as the rent, vacancy, tenant improvement dollars for the cash flow reports next year and going forward?

Market Leasing Assumptions – Running the Calculations

($18 renewal rate * 50% renewal probability) + ($20 new tenant rate * 50% probability) = $19 SqFt/Yr.

(0 months vacant if renewed * 50% renewal prob) + (3 months vacant for new tenant * 50% probability) = 2 months vacant (rounded up)

The examples above demonstrate how to calculate the blended figures for Market Leasing Assumptions.  Be sure to know the math behind this prior to taking the Argus Certification Exam.


Categories: real estate.

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detailed reimbursement methods (part 2) – argus valuation dcf

This post is a part of a collection of posts about Argus Valuation DCF and the Argus Certification Exam.  You can view all posts in the series by following the Argus Certification Exam tag.  This is the second of two posts about detailed reimbursement methods.

In part one of detailed reimbursement methods in Argus Valuation DCF, we reviewed how to create detailed reimbursement methods, reimbursable expenses, expense groups and reimbursement methods.    This post covers the remaining columns in the detailed reimbursement method window:

Pro-Rata % (Pro-Rata Percent)Natural pro-rata is simply the tenants size divided by the Area Measure.  If the Pro-Rata % is not Natural, enter as a percentage (10% of Area Measure, etc.).

Area Measure – Based on the number defined under the given name.  Typically this is the total net rentable area (Property Size is setup when the Argus file is created).

Area Minimum – If this field is not blank, whenever the occupied area falls below the area minimum number, the area minimum will be used to determine the pro-rata %.  This topic was not covered in the Argus Certification Exam I experienced.

Chargeable % (Chargeable Percent) – If left blank, this field defaults to 100%.  Use the chargeable percent to cover the cost of administrative fees that are percentage based.  For example, a 10% administrative fee for CAM reimbursements would have a chargeable % of 110%.

Reimburse After – This is an important concept to know/understand.  If there is a Tenant or Tenant Group that will reimburse the first $XX amount.  As an example, suppose an anchor tenant in a retail center is responsible for the first $40,000 in CAM expenses.  For Tenant B, enter 40K in the reimburse after field to denote that expenses after $40,000 will be covered on a pro-rata % by Tenant B.

Reimb. Min. / Reimb. Max – Designate a reimbursement minimum or maximum for a specific tenant.  The next two columns following each of these columns relate to the Reimb Min/Max field.

Unit of Measure is either $ Amount/Yr or $/SqFt/Yr.
Min/Max Growth – percentage at which the reimbursement should grow each year.

% Rent Offset (Percent Rent Offset) – An entry in the help text and Argus manual states the following:

An entry in this field will reduce the amount of retail sales percent revenue by a percentage of the expense reimbursement. The amount of the expense reimbursement will not be affected. Enter the percent rent offset as a number (5 or .05). For percentages greater than 100%, you must enter a number greater than 100.

The following table helps demonstrate what the above says (because, in my opinion, that makes things more confusing):

% Rent Offset Expense Reimbursement Retail Sales % Revenue
50 $1,000 $9,500
100 $1,000 $9.000

If the rent is offset by 50%, Argus subtracts 50% of the expense reimbursement from the retail sales revenue.  Hopefully the table helps clarify things.

That wraps up all of the columns associated with detailed expense reimbursements in Argus.  The certification exam covers this in detail, so be sure to know how to do all of the functionality discussed in both parts.

Categories: real estate.

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10 rules of successful entrepreneurship (the intelligent entrepreneur book review)

Ten rules of entrepreneurship interwoven with three inspiring stories makes The Intelligent Entrepreneur a fun and exhilarating read.  Meet Chris, Marla and Marc.  All are Harvard Business School graduates who have graduated from HBS and built firms that generated at least $50 million a year in revenue and/or netted their founders more than $20 million in personal profit.  The stories of each are exciting, candid and thoroughly engaging.

Bill Murphy does an excellent job of telling each story in relation to the 10 rules of successful entrepreneurship.  While I would highly recommend this book to anyone interested in entrepreneurship, I realize some are more interested in a cliff notes version…  here are the ten rules:

1. Make the commitment.

As anyone who has tried to launch a company knows, becoming a successful entrepreneur is hard.  Without a firm commitment to the company and idea, the success of your new venture is doomed to fail.  Making a commitment is not just about standing behind your idea, it’s an analysis of your life situation as well:

  • What other obligations will compete for your time and resources?
  • What kind of support systems do you have?
  • What is the opportunity cost?
  • What is your record of achievement, creation and reinvention?
  • What is your tolerance for risk?

2. Find a problem, then solve it.

There is a great quote in the book from a top partner at a venture capital firm: “Pain businesses are those that solve a significant problem, and people will rarely hesitate to pay money to solve that problem. Pleasure businesses solve less urgent problems.  They can sometimes be great, but the success rate is much lower.”

What problems do you have?  Is it a pain problem or a pleasure problem?  How can you solve it?  Will anyone care?

3. Think big, think new, think again.

Thinking big means pursuing ideas that have enough potential to be worth your time.  Ideas with scale, scope and the potential for huge financial returns.  “We only get one life” as Murphy puts it, “and the successful entrepreneurs I interviewed were determined to spend their limited time on this earth wisely by pursuing plans that would make it possible for them to have as much impact as possible.”

Thinking new means bringing a new perspective to an industry that has always done something a certain way.

Thinking again is about recognizing that your first problem and solution are probably not the best.  The best entrepreneurs are serial innovators.

4. You can’t do it alone.

Successful entrepreneurs have what academics and Murphy call “social capital.”  These are networks that have been developed to help identify and pursue opportunity. Secondly, entrepreneurs recognized their own strengths and weaknesses and put together teams that would help them complement their talents and experience.

Supporting the idea of not being able to do it alone is the first item on Paul Graham’s list: The 18 Mistakes that Kill Startups.

So how do you find people to help with your entrepreneurial adventure?

  • Use your existing networks – alumni organization? family or friends to lean on?  church groups?
  • Decide where you want to work – go do whatever interests you and if you can’t do it, get as close as possible to it as you can.
  • Use technology – obviously social networks can help, but keep in mind, it’s about quality not quantity
  • Don’t waste time building useless networks – networking is not an end in and of itself.  Make 10 quality connections instead of a 150 useless ones.

5. You must do it alone.

While a partner (or partners) in your entrepreneurial adventure is important, it’s also all about you.  It’s your idea, the team you have recruited, you are the one they look to for guidance and in the end, you’re the one who will likely reap the most substantial rewards.  So, do you believe in yourself enough to pursue your goal?

Developing a healthy dose of confidence is important. Confidence in yourself and confidence in your venture.    Murphy gives a couple of suggestions for developing a healthy sense of confidence:

  • Get to know other entrepreneurs – their successes and their failures will prove invaluable.
  • Inventory your own successes – develop a reservoir of confidence, never sell yourself short
  • Read about the great entrepreneurs and their successes – Ben Franklin, Michael Dell, Ray Kroc and The Intelligent Entrepreneur.

6. Manage risk.

How risky is entrepreneurship?  Is it as riskier than everything else you will do in your life? It depends.  A well planned company with a solid business plan might be a lot less riskier than other things in life.

It will be rare to find a risk free business to start.  But it’s not necessarily about finding a risk free venture.  It’s about finding ways to manage the risks.  It’s a delicate balance between managing risk and exercising too much caution – which leads to inaction.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Some tips from Murphy on this topic:

  • Understand finance and accounting (or find someone who does)
  • Incorporate
  • Have a plan B
  • Liquidity is your friend

7. Learn to lead.

Leadership of a startup will come down to how well you can communicate your vision and motivate your partners and employees to adopt that vision as well.  Without a successful leader, your venture is doomed to failure.  So how do you learn to lead?

  • Learn to communicate well – can you get your point across clearly?  are you a good listener?
  • Clarify your vision – what is the end goal?  How clear is it and how easy is it to describe to the people you are working with?
  • Put your ego aside – learn to delegate when necessary.  Find ways to empower other people
  • What do you want to do in the company?  – do you want to start or run the company?  Be rich or be king?

8. Learn to sell.

As soon as you become and entrepreneur, you become a salesperson.  You’re constantly selling, even before you figure out which problem you are going to solve.  “Sell today, sell tomorrow, sell all the damn time.  First and last, you’re an entrepreneur.  But in between, you’re all about selling.”

Two things can help you sell your new business: passion and credibility.  Be passionate about the product you are offering and how it can help solve your customers problems, but balance your passion with credibility.  Selling anything to anybody, isn’t the objective.  Don’t compromise your credibility (pushing the truth) to make a sale.

9. Persist, persevere, prevail.

The three stories of Marc, Marla and Chris in Bill Murphy’s book illustrate the importance of persistence.  At some point during each story, the entrepreneurs are faced what seem to be huge obstacles.  A combination of skill, knowledge and sheer persistence help them push through these difficult times.

You, like Marc, Marla and Chris will also encounter challenges during your entrepreneurial adventure.  Stick with it.  You will be much better off persisting and hopefully prevailing.  Whatever you do, learn as much as you can from your successes and failures and carry that knowledge on to future projects.

10. Play the game for life.

As I learned from reading this book, the entrepreneurial venture isn’t entirely about cashing in on a great idea for a substantial sum of money.  It’s about finding fulfillment in life.  It’s about answering the question: “Why am I here?”

As Murphy states: “What matters most is finding a true measure of fulfillment – one that leaves you feeling that you have used all your talents to accomplish something worthwhile, make a difference in people’s lives and leave a legacy for those who follow.

 

Categories: webpreneur.

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